Prepare for a flu pandemic

Star: Schools closed. Employees not showing up for work, calling in sick. Shopping malls deserted. Frightened people stay home, behind barricaded doors and windows.
Essential items become scarce, sending the prices of goods soaring. The economy grinds to a halt.
A sniffle is viewed with suspicion. Vaccines, in short supply to begin with, have run out. Hospitals overcrowded with the medical staff stretched to breaking point.
This is the bleak but very likely scenario, should the deadly H5N1 virus mutate into a strain that can be transmitted from person to person.
When that happens, half of those infected could die because we don’t have natural immunity to fight back.
Asia Pacific Society for Medical Virology president Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Lam Sai Kit said as many as 20% of the world’s population could contract the flu. Many would not survive.
“One has to look at the facts. There have been more than 100 cases and over half of them have died.
“When there is human-to-human infection, the scenario could be pretty horrible even if the virus does not change in virulence. Hopefully, the mortality rate will be lower.
“There is no telling when this will happen. We have to take advantage of this window of opportunity and be prepared,” said Dr Lam, who headed the team that discovered the Nipah virus.
The World Health Organisation warned last month that bird flu could mutate into a form that could be passed between humans, and that the world was on the brink of a pandemic.
Dr Lam believes that “self-discipline and self-quarantine” must be practised to reduce exposure in the event of such a crisis.
He said the authorities should provide guidelines for home nursing and prevention among family members, and advise the people when to take a patient to hospital to avoid taxing health facilities.
By then, health services would be overwhelmed and no country would be able to provide enough hospital beds, he said.
At the same time, he said, essential services such as electricity, water, transport and food supply, should be maintained.
On the worldwide shortage of Tamiflu as a result of countries stockpiling the antiviral drug, Dr Lam said all nations should pool and share resources to tackle the scourge.
In the meantime, surveillance for respiratory diseases must be stepped up, and any increase of flu-like cases must be investigated, he said.